• Coffee prices surged throughout 2025, driven by a perfect storm of supply constraints and geopolitical tensions, and they’re not expected to fall anytime soon.
• Operational expenses are expected to continue rising throughout 2026 across virtually every category, from labour to packaging, rent, and energy.
• More cafés are adopting smart technology and flexible menu strategies to gain clearer oversight of all operations and remain resilient and adaptable.
• New tools can help coffee shops identify precisely where to reduce costs or invest additional time and resources for maximum return.

The past year has tested coffee shop owners like never before. With arabica futures hitting historic peaks and operational costs climbing across the board, margins have tightened considerably. 

As we look ahead to 2026, the café landscape remains uncertain. While some industry leaders predict stabilisation in the coming months, emerging market signals suggest volatility will persist. Undoubtedly, this will force café operators to rethink their strategies for survival and growth in an increasingly challenging economic environment.

Those who embrace new technologies alongside thoughtful menu strategies and exceptional customer service will find themselves well-equipped to navigate unpredictability. Corin Camenisch from SumUp and Bruno Damiano Maciel from Jungle Berry Limited share their insights.

You may also like our article on how coffee shops can tap into food trends.

Why coffee prices will stay high in 2026

This year has been one of the most turbulent in the coffee industry’s entire history.

In February 2025, arabica futures reached unprecedented levels as climate-related challenges decimated harvests in key producing countries. Persistent droughts in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, significantly impacted yields, while irregular rainfall patterns across Vietnam disrupted production cycles. 

These climate challenges have been compounded by labour shortages on coffee farms and logistical bottlenecks that continue to strain global supply chains.

Political factors have added another layer of complexity. Trade disputes and shifting tariff policies have created uncertainty, making long-term planning difficult for importers, roasters, and coffee shop owners. The introduction of new environmental regulations, such as the EUDR, while necessary for sustainable production, has also increased compliance costs and added administrative burdens.

Some industry analysts have offered cautious optimism for the year ahead. illycaffè CEO Cristina Scocchia projected that arabica futures would stabilise between US$2.50 and US$3/lb by late 2026, predicting higher production volumes in Brazil and declining global demand as economic pressures reduce consumption.

However, recent data suggests this recovery timeline may be overly optimistic. Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) recently lowered its 2025 arabica estimates by 5% due to droughts and off-cycle weakness, indicating that prices are likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Colombia, another major global coffee producer, also offers a mixed picture. The country reportedly had its most productive coffee harvest in over three decades, producing nearly 15 million 60kg bags, representing a 17% increase over the prior cycle. This production boost could help ease some supply pressures; however, with US President Trump recently threatening to raise tariffs on Colombian imports, price spikes and sudden fluctuations remain probable.

Coffee prices aren’t the only concern for café owners, though. Operational expenses, which have been steadily climbing since the pandemic, are expected to keep rising throughout 2026.

“Alongside coffee beans themselves, cafés are seeing persistent increases in wages, utilities, rent, and other key ingredients such as milk and baked goods,” says Corin, the Marketing and Growth Lead at SumUp, a payment solutions supplier for small and medium businesses, including coffee shops.

“Packaging and sustainability compliance costs are also climbing, contributing to the overall operational strain,” she adds. “These pressures are forcing many café owners to review pricing, streamline workflows, and focus on efficiency to protect their margins and prevent customer dissatisfaction.”

What does this mean for coffee shops?

Even if coffee prices stabilise in late 2026, the ripple effects of record highs will be long-lasting and far-reaching for both café operators and consumers. The lag between commodity market movements and retail price adjustments means the full impact of 2025’s price surge has yet to be felt in coffee shops.

According to a March 2025 UN FAO report, it will take almost a year for consumers to feel the full effects of price spikes. More concerning still, the report estimates that the residual effects of these price rises will last for four years, meaning the market disruption of 2025 will have a lasting impact on the industry.

This extended timeline means consumers will inevitably adapt their purchasing behaviours. Many are likely to switch to more affordable options, visiting specialty coffee shops less frequently, and viewing premium coffee as an occasional luxury rather than a daily routine. Multiple daily café visits may become less common as household budgets tighten under broader inflationary pressures.

The shift in consumer expectations creates both challenges and opportunities for café operators. Those who can justify their pricing through exceptional service, unique offerings, and efficient operations will be better positioned to maintain customer loyalty. Coffee shops will need to find innovative ways to cater to shifting preferences and develop new strategies to attract customers.

“Consumers have become more conscious of value, but that doesn’t necessarily mean spending less,” notes Corin. “They’re prioritising quality and a seamless, convenient experience: an atmosphere that feels worth the price. 

“Cafés that can deliver on these expectations are retaining loyal customers despite cost pressures.”

Menu diversification presents one path forward. Introducing new beverage options that use less expensive ingredients, such as creative tea-based drinks, alternative milk beverages, or seasonal specials that showcase more cost-effective coffee origins and blends, can help maintain margins while offering perceived value. 

Some operators are expanding food programmes or adding retail components to create additional revenue streams that aren’t as vulnerable to coffee price volatility.

“Consumers are certainly more selective, but they haven’t stopped prioritising value,” says Bruno, the founder and director of café and açaí chain Jungle Berry Limited. “They are now looking for speed, convenience, and a seamless in-store experience to justify the price.”

Creating a compelling in-store atmosphere matters more than ever. When customers visit less frequently, each visit needs to feel special and memorable. This might involve investing in comfortable seating, curating engaging playlists, hosting community events, or simply ensuring that staff have time to build relationships with regulars rather than just processing transactions.

“The key for us has been maintaining quality while reducing queue times and eliminating ordering errors, making the purchase process as friction-free as possible, using solutions like SumUp,” Bruno adds.

How technology can be an effective way forward

Faced with multi-front cost pressures, more cafés are turning to smart technology and flexible strategies to remain resilient. The right technological tools can help owners and managers gain clearer oversight of all operations, enabling them to identify precisely where to reduce costs or invest additional time and money for maximum return. 

For multi-location operators, especially, technology helps streamline operations and maintain consistency across different sites without requiring constant physical presence.

Modern point-of-sale systems integrated with inventory management provide real-time visibility into stock levels, waste patterns, and product performance. This data-driven approach enables operators to make informed decisions about which menu items to promote, when to adjust ordering quantities, and how to minimise waste through improved forecasting. 

“SumUp helps cafés run more efficiently by combining payments, inventory-checking, and self-ordering tools into one connected system,” Corin explains. “This reduces time spent on manual admin and provides owners with a far clearer picture of their daily performance. With real-time insights, coffee shops can make faster, data-driven decisions, whether that’s adjusting pricing or margins, managing stock more precisely, or improving turnaround speed at peak hours.”

The ability to track sales patterns across different times of day and days of the week enables more strategic staff scheduling, ensuring adequate coverage during peak periods without overstaffing during quieter times.

Self-ordering kiosks represent one particularly impactful technological advancement for customer-facing operations. These systems allow customers to browse menus at their own pace, customise orders without miscommunication, and complete transactions independently. For operators, this technology addresses multiple pain points simultaneously.

“Previously, we needed one employee dedicated solely to taking orders during the winter, and two during the busy summer season,” Bruno shares. “SumUp’s self-ordering kiosks have allowed us to redeploy those staff members to critical roles like preparation and customer service, drastically reducing our payroll spend.”

The accuracy improvements alone can justify the investment in technology. Order errors create waste, slow down service, and frustrate customers – especially as the beverage customisation trend accelerates. 

Automated ordering systems virtually eliminate these issues by removing the human element from the order entry process. This is especially valuable for cafés that employ seasonal staff or operate in multilingual environments, where communication barriers can pose challenges.

Beyond operational efficiency, self-ordering technology can actively drive revenue growth through strategic prompts and suggestions. The system can automatically recommend complementary items based on what customers have already selected, implementing consistent upselling that might feel awkward or pushy when delivered by staff.

“SumUp’s system automatically prompts customers with suggested additional purchases (or upselling) based on their original order, which has directly increased our average order value per transaction,” Bruno says.

Customer relationship management tools integrated with payment systems help cafés better understand their clientele, revealing purchasing patterns, preferred products, and visit frequency. This information enables targeted marketing efforts and menu development aligned with actual customer preferences rather than assumptions.

“Integrated systems help cafés better understand their customers by revealing what sells, when it’s selling, and how people prefer to order or pay,” Corin says. “This allows operators to tailor their service and ensure consistency across every touchpoint. When this technology is working seamlessly in the background, it allows staff to focus and spend more time on what matters most: connecting with customers.”

The strategic deployment of technology creates a virtuous cycle. Operational efficiencies reduce costs and stress on staff, allowing them to dedicate more energy to customer service and product quality. 

Better customer experiences drive loyalty and word-of-mouth marketing, while data insights enable continuous improvement in offerings and operations. This holistic approach positions cafés to weather price volatility while maintaining the quality and atmosphere that customers value.

The year ahead will undoubtedly present challenges for coffee shop operators as price pressures persist and consumer behaviour evolves. However, those who embrace technological solutions alongside thoughtful menu strategies and exceptional customer experiences will find themselves well-equipped to navigate uncertainty. 

The cafés that thrive won’t simply be those that survive high coffee prices, but those that use this moment of disruption to build more resilient, efficient, and customer-focused businesses for the long term.

Enjoyed this? Then read our article on whether specialty coffee shops are overthinking the basics.

Photo credits: SumUp

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