As younger consumers drive the trend of all-day coffee consumption, interest in decaf options is increasing. Similarly, Gen Z’s pervasive focus on health and wellness means many want to reduce their caffeine intake, further supporting the movement towards decaf.

The “death before decaf” sentiment may be over. Specialty coffee now embraces half-caf, low-caf, and decaf offerings; a decaffeinated Typica from Finca Los Nogales in Colombia even won the 2024 US Brewers Cup. 

For market growth to remain sustainable in the specialty coffee sector, the quality of decaf products must be a priority.

To learn more, I spoke with 2013 World Barista Champion Pete Licata, founder of Caffeine Control Coffee, and Erin Reed, Director of Marketing at Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Inc.

You may also like our article on why drinking too much coffee can cause caffeine jitters.

Exploring the global boom in decaf consumption

According to recent market research, the international decaf coffee market will grow by 6% to 7% annually over the next five years, projected to reach over US $28.8 billion by 2030. 

“This trend is relatively global in nature but especially prevalent in North America and key Asian geographies,” says Erin Reed, the Director of Marketing at Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee, a leading global processor and marketer of decaf coffee. 

The US is a well-established market for decaf coffee. The NCA’s Spring 2024 National Coffee Data Trends report found that 7% of Americans had decaf coffee in the past day, and past-day decaf consumption increased the most among people aged 40 and over.

The Asia Pacific decaf market, meanwhile, is anticipated to have the fastest CAGR, at 8.2%, with countries like India, Indonesia, and Japan experiencing significant increases in demand.

Europe holds the largest market share, accounting for over 35% of global revenue. Research from Mintel shows one in five UK coffee drinkers regularly opt for decaf in the UK, while up to 8% of all coffee consumed in Germany is decaf.

Why younger consumers are driving the trend

Euromonitor International’s most recent 2024 Voice of the Consumer: Consumer Health report found that self-reported interest in drinking less caffeine or none at all reached a new record high at 46% of people surveyed.

“There has been a cultural shift of sorts,” says Pete Licata, the 2013 World Barista Champion. With his wife Maria, Pete is a co-founder of Caffeine Control Coffee, a brand which provides consumers with transparency about the caffeine content of its products.

“More and more people have become conscious of their health and wellness, and in particular, there has been a big focus on sleep quality in relation to overall health and longevity,” he adds.

A recent study from Swiss Water reveals that 18- to 40-year-olds drink decaf coffee two or more times per week. According to the findings, half of the respondents wanted to improve their sleep quality, while the other half aimed to reduce anxiety. Additional reasons included seeking a more balanced energy level throughout the day and addressing various physical health concerns.

“The increased consumption of decaf parallels the no/low alcohol trend, also being driven by younger people who are looking to feel good and sleep well,” Erin tells me.

Indeed, younger generations, especially Gen Z, are increasingly opting for healthier lifestyle choices. McKinsey’s latest Future of Wellness research, which surveyed more than 5,000 consumers across China, the UK, and the US, found that Gen Z outspends older consumers on mindfulness-related wellness products. Moreover, 56% of surveyed US Gen Z consumers said fitness is a “very high priority,” compared with 40% of US consumers overall.

Combatting the effects of all-day coffee consumption

Alongside their higher spending power than previous generations – an estimated US $360 billion in global disposable income – Gen Z are more likely to drink coffee multiple times throughout the day. This demographic’s tendency to favour customised, sweetened beverages lends itself well to cold and iced coffee options, which consumers are more likely to drink later in the day.

With all-day coffee consumption, however, comes increased caffeine intake. For adults considered to be in good health, the US Food and Drug Administration recommends a daily intake of 400mg of caffeine as a safe amount. This roughly equates to between four and five cups of coffee per day.

To avoid the effects of prolonged high levels of caffeine consumption, which can include headaches, dizziness, and insomnia, a growing number of younger consumers have switched to decaf.

“I think people want to have an extra cup later in the day if they know it won’t keep them awake all night,” Pete says. “Decaf coffee is still coffee, so it’s a healthy alternative if caffeine is your issue.” 

With a growing consumer base, more brands are taking note of the shift in consumption behaviour and tapping into new trends. STōK Cold Brew Coffee, for instance, launched its first ready-to-drink decaffeinated cold brew in December 2024, making it available in grocery stores across the US to capture younger audiences who lead increasingly on-the-go lifestyles.

Specialty coffee opens its mind to decaf

Historically, the perceived lower quality of decaf coffee was the biggest factor limiting its market growth. Sentiments like “death before decaf” were common in the industry, fuelling misconceptions about lower quality and undesirable flavour profiles.

Today, however, perceptions are changing. Specialty coffee roasters around the world now offer a growing range of decaf, half-caf, and low-caf options, acknowledging the shift in consumption habits and being willing to cater to them.

“Coffee producers and decaffeination companies have improved the quality of decaf and low-caffeine coffees, which is leading to increased acceptance,” Pete says. “As an industry, we’re starting to realise that caffeine can be a problem for people, and the solutions to reduce intake are better than ever.

“Some still aren’t convinced that decaf can actually be good, so they may need to taste it to believe it.”

Competitions have been the most prominent platform for showcasing the potential of high-quality decaf coffee. At the 2024 US Brewers Cup, BlendIn Coffee Club founder Weihong Zhang won using a decaf Typica variety from Colombia. With flavour notes of eucalyptus, strawberry, and raspberry, Weihong described it as “the best decaf coffee we have ever tasted”.

Similarly, in 2020, Cole Torode used a Swiss Water® decaf process Gesha during his Canadian Barista Championship routine. Sourced from La Palma y El Tucán in Colombia, Cole mentioned that the decaf process made the coffee taste “a little bit sweeter, with maybe a little more acidity, and a little less bitterness.”

Opportunities to drive quality

Beyond prestigious competitions, influential figures in the industry are also pushing for more awareness of using higher-quality coffee for decaf options. In December 2024, James Hoffmann hosted the Decaf Project, a live interactive side-by-side tasting of the same coffee that had been decaffeinated using three different methods: the CR3 Carbonic Natural CO2, the ethyl acetate/sugar cane, and the Swiss Water® processes.

The coffees were sent to local roasters around the world and then shared with participants in the live tasting. For some, there was undoubtedly an expectation that a noticeable difference in quality would be evident between the caffeinated coffee and each decaffeination process. The results of the live tasting, however, found that the roast profile had the biggest influence on the differences in aroma, flavour, body, and acidity.

“Instead of thinking of decaf as an afterthought, there’s an opportunity to treat it with the same care and attention as all of the other coffees a roaster offers,” Erin says. “Roasters should consider offering single origins and varied processing methods rather than only blends; decaf drinkers are interested in variety and the same specialty coffee experience available with regular coffees.”

Ultimately, the precedent for quality begins at the production level. As standards for decaf processing continue to improve, we can expect to see further growth and diversification of the decaf market.

“New advancements in decaf processing are possible, and it will just take one person to figure out an innovative new method before there can be big jumps in the technology,” Pete says. 

How roasters can benefit

The decaffeination process inevitably adds an additional cost to the overall production process. Traditionally, some roasters offset these costs by sourcing cheaper, and often lower-quality, green coffee. However, as consumer interest in both decaf and high-quality coffee has increased, more roasters are recognising the value in sourcing higher-quality lots for their decaf options.

“If you know your customer base, or have identified the demand in your market, it’s likely a good time to offer decaf,” Pete says. “Some markets are not as primed as others, though, so it is always important to do your research.”

As Gen Z continues to drive trends in specialty coffee, their influence will continue to shape roasters’ offerings.

“With younger generations having grown up in specialty coffee culture, we expect that they will continue to create demand for good quality decaf, and a variety of origins and processing methods,” Erin says. “Decaf has historically had strong out-of-home consumption, but as it has become more mainstream, we would expect more at-home decaf brewing and drinking.”

The time for this trend couldn’t be more pertinent. With rising coffee shop prices likely to encourage more people to brew coffee at home, it’s a lucrative time for roasters to add high-quality decaf single origins and blends to their offerings.

Specialty coffee’s interest in decaf coffee is growing, and most agree that the quality is only improving.

“We’re already seeing highly fermented decaffeinated lots, and the better the quality going in, the better the outcome in terms of quality,” Pete says. 

Innovation in the decaf market also continues. In 2023, researchers at the Instituto Agronomico de Campinas (IAC) reported continued work on planting naturally decaffeinated coffee trees. If these coffees prove commercially successful, they could offer new opportunities for producers, roasters, and consumers.

Enjoyed this? Then read our article on whether green tea contains more caffeine than coffee.

Photo credits: Maria Licata, Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Inc, Daniel Dent

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