Market volatility has always been a defining factor in the coffee industry, but sustained high green coffee prices and US tariffs have ushered in a new era of uncertainty. All supply chain actors are impacted and forced to adapt in unprecedented ways, reshaping their strategies and business operations.

This trend is not just a passing phase but a structural change in the coffee trade. As roasters, traders, and producers adapt, there is a growing emphasis on efficiency, collaboration, and sustainability.

At the heart of this structural shift is a simple yet powerful concept: relationships. While price volatility presents challenges, it also facilitates deeper connections across the supply chain.

I spoke to several people at DRWakefield to understand how meaningful partnerships can create resilience in times of market upheaval.

You may also like our article on how roasters are managing cash flow with higher coffee prices.

Market volatility has become persistent

Sustained high coffee prices are creating a perfect storm of interconnected crises in the industry that show little sign of abating.

Climate-related issues are a major contributing factor to the sharp spike in the C price, which has more than doubled over the last 12 months. Unpredictable weather patterns are triggering severe, prolonged droughts in Brazil and excessive rainfall in Colombia and Vietnam. Compounded by historically low global stockpiles, production disruptions in major producing countries have resulted in outsized price hikes.

Meanwhile, commodity brokers and speculative investors, sensing opportunity in this scarcity, have increasingly bet on continued price appreciation, further accelerating market volatility.

US President Donald Trump’s recent global trade tariffs have exacerbated these issues, introducing additional complexity and costs to an already strained supply chain. Shortly after Trump announced universal import taxes, which included levies between 10% and 104% on imports from the majority of the world’s top 20 coffee-producing countries, coffee prices fell sharply. They have since risen to above US $4/lb – close to record levels that many in the industry believed they would never see.

For coffee supply chain actors, this geopolitical turbulence arrived at an inopportune moment. Coffee businesses simultaneously face unprecedented inflation across almost every operational expense, from increasing energy costs and logistics fees to rising labour expenses and packaging materials. Roasters and traders find themselves squeezed from multiple sides, trapped between resistant consumer price ceilings and a tide of escalating costs.

“This is where the challenge lies; importers, exporters, and producers need to adapt faster,” says Priscilla Daniel, a senior trader at DRWakefield, a specialty coffee importer established in 1970 that focuses on long-term relationships with producers in over 25 countries. 

“It’s not as much about where the market is in terms of the price level, but more about the increase in the market prices in such a short time,” Priscilla adds. “Nobody has had much time to adapt.”

Shifting industry dynamics

Market uncertainty has created a fundamental shift in trade dynamics, altering the power balance within the coffee industry and creating tensions where previously established patterns existed. Roasters, who historically thrived during periods of low C prices by securing more comfortable margins, now find themselves in unfamiliar territory. Their cash flows have become increasingly constrained as capital requirements for purchasing green coffee have soared in recent years. 

Many businesses built on models that assumed specific price ranges are now questioning their sustainability, forcing difficult decisions about pricing and sourcing strategies.

“The export of coffee needs to be financed; therefore, the exporter must have the funds in advance to purchase the coffee from the producer,” says Hannah Wakefield, a trader at DRWakefield. “When coffee has, in some cases, more or less doubled in value, getting the money to buy it becomes a problem.”

Meanwhile, producers have experienced an equally disorienting role reversal. After generations of being “price takers” with minimal leverage, many farmers now find themselves in the position of “price makers” with newfound negotiating power. Yet this apparent advantage comes with its own complexities. The higher prices don’t necessarily translate to proportionally higher profits, as producers also face escalating costs for fertilisers, labour, and transportation.

Additionally, working relationships that have developed over time now face their most significant test as all parties navigate this new financial landscape, where traditional power dynamics and expectations have been upended.

Specialty coffee’s emphasis on direct trade, transparency, and mutual respect has created a foundation that, while strained by current conditions, offers the best path forward through this turbulent period.

Strengthening relationships across the value chain

In the climate of sustained uncertainty, building trust across the supply chain has evolved from a competitive advantage to an essential survival strategy. With coffee prices not expected to retreat until late 2025 – and the ripple effects likely to be felt for at least four years, according to recent UN forecasts – short-term thinking and opportunistic working relationships can’t weather the storm.

The most resilient businesses will be those that prioritise transparency, consistent communication, and shared risk management. When both sides understand each other’s challenges and constraints, they can develop creative solutions that preserve business viability while maintaining quality and sustainability commitments. These trusted partnerships create stability in an otherwise volatile market, enabling long-term planning despite short-term fluctuations.

“There is a lot of risk involved in specialty coffee. For instance, some producers were selling their coffee before record-high prices, at about US $3/lb, and many didn’t think it would climb higher, so they set contracts at that price,” says Priscilla. “Now, even when prices go up, they won’t receive them because of these constraints.

“People can try to predict if the market will go up at a certain point, but it can also go down at any time; it’s so volatile. This highlights the importance of relationships and trust,” she adds. “They’re both essential to balance quality. Producers know that if they stop producing coffee at the level of quality we have been buying from them for years, it would be difficult to re-market it. It’s about the value of the relationships that we have with producer partners.”

Importers like DRWakefield embody this relationship-centred approach. The company’s global network spans more than 25 origins, underscoring its ability to cultivate partnerships with a wide range of producers, co-operatives, and exporters, and understand their specific needs.

“Direct trade has a different meaning for us. Instead of going straight to the producer and undertaking the risks that can arise, we mitigate and manage the risks when someone has a relationship with us,” says Hannah. “If there is a situation when a buyer feels the quality isn’t as expected or they don’t want that specific coffee this year, for example, we still buy the coffee from the producer.”

This level of commitment and two-way communication ensures that trust is maintained throughout the supply chain, translating concerns and constraints in both directions and facilitating solutions that work for all parties.

During periods of such volatility, this is especially important, as Hannah explains: “We continue that income for the producer and invest in our relationship with them. We find a market for the coffee with another buyer or roaster.

“It gives a degree of security to everyone involved, ensuring that our suppliers still have that income vital for their sustainability.”

Forging a path forward together

For the global coffee industry to withstand periods of uncertainty, all stakeholders must embrace new models of collaboration that prioritise information sharing and joint problem-solving. Producers need to provide greater visibility into their production challenges and cost structures, while roasters must be more transparent about their margin constraints and market realities. 

With more than five decades of experience, DRWakefield brings a historical perspective on navigating current challenging conditions, solidifying the value of relationship-based trading through multiple market cycles and periods of instability. The company became the first independent coffee importer to gain a Fairtrade licence in 1993.

“We try to connect producers and roasters together through origin trips, cuppings, and events,” says Hriday Gupta, the marketing manager at DRWakefield. “We also share information with customers and producers through our project and trip reports, weekly market reports, and other such articles.”

The importer celebrated its 20-year partnership with Daterra in Brazil last year, for example, highlighting how a shared commitment to innovation and sustainability can drive quality improvements year after year, particularly in navigating the challenges of climate variability and environmental stewardship.

One of their most recent joint projects studied how colour impacts coffee processing and fermentation, coining the term “Solar Spectrum Fermentation”.

Similarly, the nearly two-decade partnership with Coope Dota in Costa Rica illustrates how sustained engagement has supported the cooperative’s evolution as a quality-focused and environmentally conscious organisation that is now recognised globally as the world’s first carbon-neutral coffee cooperative.

As it navigates these unprecedented market conditions, the coffee industry stands at a crossroads. While market volatility may eventually subside, the current challenges reveal a fundamental truth: it’s the strength of connections that will determine collective resilience. 

By prioritising transparency, consistent communication, and shared value creation, producers, roasters, and traders can emerge from this period with a supply chain that is not just more equitable but ultimately more stable and capable of weathering future challenges.

Enjoyed this? Then read our article on why high coffee prices don’t automatically put producers in a better position.

Photo credits: DRWakefield

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